Situational Report

SITREP — 1 October 2026

02 Oct 2026   /   Jamal A.

IRAN / HORMUZ

  • US deploying a third carrier strike group; three carriers and two amphibious groups around Iran by end-November.
  • Treasury sanctioned the A7 shadow banking network plus Iran’s rail and automobile sectors; FinCEN alert issued.
  • IRGC said it hit a moving long-range target with ballistic missiles for the first time.
  • Several tankers attacked in recent days, per the Persian Gulf Strait Authority; UKMTO reported another hit.
  • Trump threatened strikes after the midterms, saying Iran is “ready to fold up.”
  • Brent above $100 after China suspended October fuel exports.

YEMEN

  • Coalition intercepted four Houthi drones and two ballistic missiles; Houthis targeted a power station in Medina.
  • Saudi Arabia gave the Yemeni government $60m to fight the Houthis.

ETHIOPIA

  • At least 52 civilians killed in three days around Alamata; 700+ wounded in MSF-supported hospitals. Government troops hold the town, possibly moving on Mekelle.
  • Explosions heard near ENDF headquarters in Addis Ababa overnight. Drone flights over the capital banned indefinitely.
  • Airstrike reported at Axum, with drones overhead and network outages.

UKRAINE–RUSSIA

  • Russia’s first mass assault on the power grid since last autumn killed seven and forced emergency cuts in Kyiv and three regions. 188 drones plus missiles overnight.
  • First use of a drone with a warhead designed to cut power pylons.
  • Drones hit a Kyiv school, the Institute for Nuclear Research, and near the South Bridge, closing it. The Parkovyi data centre is offline.
  • A Ukrainian MiG-29 was shot down, killing the pilot.