Situational Report

SITREP — 5 October 2026

06 Oct 2026   /   Jamal A.

YEMEN

  • President al-Alimi launched Operation Dawn of Yemen, a general offensive to retake all Houthi-held territory including Sanaa, the first such campaign since the war froze.
  • Government forces claimed full control of Bab al-Mandeb and Perim Island, and said they seized Mocha on a three-front advance. Military claims put 1,747 Houthi fighters “neutralised” in 1,122 operations across Saada, al-Jawf, Taiz and the western coast. Unverified.
  • The Houthis targeted King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh and an Aramco refinery.
  • Rubio said the US will honour its Saudi defence pact; a US task force under a three-star general is providing intelligence and targeting support. Makkah Pact states will meet in Riyadh.

IRAN / HORMUZ

  • The IRGC ordered a tanker to turn back or risk being struck; UKMTO reported an incident off Khasab, Oman.
  • CENTCOM said Iranian forces have destroyed 13 commercial ships in the strait in recent months.
  • Qalibaf said the strait stays closed until Iran’s seven conditions are met.
  • Iraq moved 2m barrels through the strait on a VLCC, its first such operation in decades. Regional exports topped pre-war levels; WTI fell below $90 after a G7 pledge to release 100m barrels.
  • The US withdrew all 12 B-1 bombers from RAF Fairford after threat reporting on an Iran-backed plot.

ETHIOPIA

  • Federal forces and the allied Tigray Peace Force took Mekelle after the TPLF withdrew on Saturday. Mobile service has resumed in parts of the city.
  • Fighting continues across Tigray, Afar and Amhara. Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan issued a joint declaration calling for political solutions.

UKRAINE–RUSSIA

  • Russia’s Defence Ministry said it will intensify strikes on Kyiv and other cities.
  • A Russian airstrike on Kharkiv killed one and injured six.
  • Merz announced a €1.3bn package in Kyiv, about $1.1bn of it military aid aimed at Russian launch sites.