Nothing happens in isolation.
War is a permanent condition. We study conflict, political risk, interest, and consequence in hope of explaining it more clearly for those who need to manage, report on, or research it. We're here to make it legible.
IRAN / HORMUZ
- Iran said Saudi Arabia was behind Oman’s postponement of the Salalah meeting. Riyadh had objected to proposed amendments to the Iran–Oman corridor arrangement and Bahrain declined to attend. No new date set. Tehran says it will pursue the bilateral Oman deal regardless.
- Two officials briefed on the matter said repairs to the East-West pipeline will take three to five weeks, leaving it mostly out of service. It had been moving roughly 5m bpd of rerouted crude to Yanbu.
- Trump said the US is open to the “concept” of negotiating a deal with Iran. Tehran denied any nuclear activity at Pickaxe Mountain.
- The NYT reported the 6–7 July attacks on three vessels — which collapsed the June memorandum — were carried out by hardliners without authorisation from Pezeshkian, the IRGC commander or the SNSC, with Iranian investigations pointing to Hossein Taeb.
YEMEN
- Houthis seized Greater and Lesser Hanish, consolidating control of the Bab al-Mandeb approaches after taking Mocha and Perim.
- They claimed a large ballistic missile and drone barrage on King Khalid Air Base at Khamis Mushait, targeting hangars, radar and ammunition depots, with sirens in Abha. No Saudi confirmation.
- Houthis reported 54 Saudi airstrikes in 24 hours. China said it is deeply concerned about the attacks on shipping.
UKRAINE–RUSSIA
- Ukrainian drones hit Sochi overnight, with explosions and fires reported around the city; Ukraine also struck energy infrastructure in occupied Mariupol.
- Tusk warned of “very intensive” Russian action in the coming months after drones struck a gas station near the Yahodyn-Dorohusk crossing and the Kyiv–Warsaw train two kilometres from the Polish border.
- Peskov said Russia has dropped its restraint on target selection in response to Ukrainian strikes on Russian economic infrastructure.
- Canada is seeking to join the EU support loan to Ukraine, to be finalised before the late-October Montreal summit.
IRAN / HORMUZ
- The Salalah meeting between Iran and Gulf states, set for Monday, was postponed indefinitely at the request of unnamed regional states. Iran had planned to unveil its agreement with Oman on a temporary Hormuz shipping lane there. The US was not party to it.
- An Iranian commercial vessel was hit in the strait early Sunday, killing one and wounding four; 13 Indian seafarers were rescued, one still missing. UKMTO reported a separate vessel struck by an unknown projectile.
- Pezeshkian met Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Khaled bin Mohamed on the BRICS sidelines in New Delhi. A senior Iranian official said no talks with Washington are under way.
- Trump said the US might stay in Iran and “keep the oil,” and blamed global diesel shortages on Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries rather than the Gulf.
YEMEN
- Houthis claimed drone and missile strikes on the Sharurah base in southern Saudi Arabia. Saudi civil defence reported a projectile near the Red Sea border injuring two.
- Government forces struck Mocha and Dhubab and ran three airstrikes in Taiz, vowing reinforcements to the Red Sea coast after conceding a “painful” defeat.
- Houthi positions are now about 20 miles from the US base in Djibouti. The UN puts displacement at over 80,000 since 1 September; 2,000+ have crossed to Djibouti.
UKRAINE–RUSSIA
- Budanov said the next US–Ukraine–Russia talks may take place in October. Zelensky said he is ready to meet Putin at the December G20 in Miami.
- Lavrov ruled out halting attacks during negotiations, rejecting both a temporary ceasefire and a leaders’ meeting in a neutral country.
- Russia launched close to 500 drones on 12 September, including a rare mass attack on Volyn and Rivne. Missile strikes hit Zaporizhstal and ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih, killing two.
SUDAN
- The Darfur arms embargo lapsed on 12 September without the US expansion, which Russia and China opposed.
SAUDI ARABIA / IRAQ
- Riyadh shut the East-West (Petroline) pipeline after drone strikes on Thursday hit pump stations in the Riyadh and Medina regions, causing injuries and fires visible on satellite imagery. The 745-mile line carries up to 7m bpd to Yanbu and had been the kingdom’s main workaround for the Hormuz closure.
- The Saudi foreign ministry said the drones came from Iraqi territory, condemned the attack, but held off retaliation at the request of the Iraqi PM while reserving the right to act. Baghdad dismissed a military commander over the attack and welcomed the restraint.
- The IEA reported Saudi crude supply fell 2.3m bpd in August to 6m bpd, the lowest in over three decades.
YEMEN / BAB AL-MANDEB
- Houthi forces seized Perim (Mayun) Island inside the Bab al-Mandeb after government forces withdrew, a day after taking Mocha, the Hanish islands and reportedly Zuqar. They also reached Dhubab on the facing coast.
- A Houthi spokesman said navigation through the strait is safe for all vessels except Saudi ones, and announced a push to clear remaining government forces from the western coast.
- MBS pressed Trump twice on Thursday for US strikes on the Houthis. Trump declined. Yemeni commanders said they were stunned Saudi air power did not contest the fall of Mocha.
IRAN / HORMUZ
- Gulf and Iranian foreign ministers are expected to meet Monday in Salalah, Oman, on a temporary arrangement for Hormuz shipping
- A US official said Iran has resumed limited ballistic missile production at underground sites using pre-war component stocks.
LEBANON
- Katz said Israel is ready to keep striking Hezbollah at additional locations after the Ali al-Taher tunnel demolition.
- Israeli drones continued dropping explosives on houses in Mansouri for demolition.
UKRAINE–RUSSIA
- Ukrainian drones hit a Rosneft refinery and an Ozon warehouse in Saratov region;
- Russia struck Odesa and Kyiv with missiles and drones.
NORTH AFRICA / GULF
- Algeria severed diplomatic relations with the UAE, accusing Abu Dhabi of provocative and hostile acts, and gave the Emirati ambassador 48 hours to leave. Algerian airspace closes to all UAE-registered civilian and military aircraft from midnight on 11 September.
IRAN / HORMUZ
- US officials said American warplanes were damaged in Iran’s earlier missile attack on Al-Azraq air base in Jordan, contradicting initial no-damage reporting.
- Iranian state media reported overnight explosions across the Hormozgan coast at Sirik, Minab, Jask and Qeshm Island. No attacker identified and no Iranian damage assessment issued.
- Trump threatened strikes on Pickaxe Mountain, Iran’s centrifuge assembly site, citing detected movement there. It was not hit in the February campaign.
LEBANON
- The IDF detonated Hezbollah’s tunnel network under the Ali al-Taher ridge near Nabatieh, producing a seismic signature. Israel declared operational control of the complex on 3 September.
- Broad strike wave across the south: Wadi Zibqin, Nabatieh al-Fawqa, al-Mansouri, outskirts of al-Qantara, and between Hadatha and Haris.
YEMEN
- Houthi forces advanced along the Red Sea coast and reached the Hanish Islands, extending their reach over the Bab al-Mandeb approaches.
- Saudi Arabia struck around 40 targets across four Yemeni regions in 24 hours, per Houthi media.
UKRAINE–RUSSIA
- A Russian strike on a Pavlohrad shopping centre killed four and injured more than 60.
- Ukraine sealed off a one-kilometre strip along the Russian and Belarusian borders under a special regime.
- Zelensky met Canadian PM Carney, announcing a Canadian air-defence and winter energy package.
- PACE backed using frozen Russian central bank assets to fund reparations, calling it a lawful countermeasure.
- Tusk said Poland expects Russian attacks on border crossings with Ukraine as Moscow targets trade routes.
IRAN / HORMUZ
- The IAEA Board of Governors referred Iran to the Security Council over non-compliance, on a resolution tabled by the US, UK, France and Germany. Tehran called it based on fabrications.
- Iran said it attacked 10 ships near the strait, and framed the Jordan and US Navy strikes as self-defence against the tanker campaign.
- UKMTO reported a tanker hit by an unknown projectile southeast of Al-Faw, Iraq, and a vessel listing off Port Rashid, UAE, possibly after an attack.
- Trump said the war will end immediately after the midterms, claimed US control of the strait and floated renaming it after himself. He warned Iran against “activity at Pickaxe.”
- Protests outside the US embassy in Seoul against a possible South Korean deployment to Hormuz.
LEBANON
- An Israeli drone strike killed one on a motorcycle between Harouf and Zebdin.
- The Lebanese Army publicly accused Israel of a deadly escalation that threatens the framework deal and the army’s ability to implement it — its sharpest statement since June.
YEMEN
- Houthi media reported 32 Saudi airstrikes across Marib, Jawf, Taiz and Hodeidah.
- The PLC is now stating openly that the offensive aims at Sanaa, after taking Yatma in Jawf and advancing in Bayda. A Houthi push on al-Wazi’iyah was repelled.
- Death toll from the al-Hazm prison strike rose to 23.
UKRAINE–RUSSIA
- Zelensky attacked the international response as insufficient after the heaviest sustained bombardment of Kyiv of the war; the 8 Sept strike killed four.
- Donbas remains the sticking point. Zelensky called it “the question of the entire war”; Moscow holds about three-quarters of the region and demands Ukrainian withdrawal from the rest.
- Ukraine’s campaign against Russian logistics has hit 25-plus Wildberries and Ozon warehouses since mid-July, causing an estimated $10bn in damage.
SUDAN
- No significant developments reported. Sanctions renewal vote still pending before the 12 September expiry.
IRAN / HORMUZ
- CENTCOM destroyed five IRGC-linked crude tankers, four in the Gulf of Oman and one near Kharg Island, after the IRGC fired ballistic missiles at a US warship twice in two days.
- Iran fired missiles at US targets in Jordan. Jordanian air defences intercepted 18; no casualties.
- The IRGC Navy warned tanker crews near Kuwaiti and Bahraini ports to abandon their vessels.
- Rezaei said Iran will declare a maritime exclusion zone from the US blockade line through Hormuz into the Gulf.
- Treasury sanctioned 36 entities in Iran’s aviation sector, naming providers in Turkey, the UAE, Kazakhstan and Malaysia.
- Qatar said it is working with China to revive diplomacy on reopening the strait.
- Brent touched $99.46 before settling near $97.50.
YEMEN
- The Houthis struck Abha airport, King Khalid air base and Aramco facilities at Abha and Jizan, wounding 73 — their heaviest attack on Saudi Arabia in years.
- Saudi Arabia retaliated within hours against Houthi-held western Yemen. Faisal bin Farhan, in Moscow, said diplomacy stays open but the kingdom will use all available means.
- Rubio said Iran is behind the attacks and deferred to the Saudi-led coalition, signalling no immediate US escalation.
UKRAINE–RUSSIA
- Trump and Putin held an hour-long call. Trump sought a 30-day halt and did not get it; Putin offered only a conditional pledge to limit energy-infrastructure strikes if Kyiv reciprocates.
- Russia resumed strikes on Kyiv hours after the 72-hour pause expired, killing five.
- Ukraine signed contracts for 1,000 Patriot missiles, with German interceptors pledged.
- Hungary blocked Ukraine’s EU accession clusters for a fourth time.
SUDAN
- No major front-line shift. Security Council vote on renewing the sanctions regime pending before the 12 September expiry.
ME/IS
- Israeli airstrikes on the southern Lebanese village of Kfar Rumman killed at least 12 people. The strikes came amid a new round of escalation between Israel and Hezbollah.
- A senior UAE official said no single state should control the Strait of Hormuz. Seven crew members of a Saudi-owned tanker struck in the strait last week remain unaccounted for.
YEMEN
- The Houthis said they downed a Saudi armed reconnaissance aircraft over Jawf province and three Saudi reconnaissance drones in 24 hours. Saudi Arabia did not comment. (Unverified)
- The Houthis accused Saudi Arabia of killing seven people in an air strike on a prison in Jawf.
- Government-aligned forces counterattacked in Taiz and Hodeidah as the Houthis push for Bab al-Mandeb, with hundreds reported killed in 24 hours. Displaced families are arriving in Mocha.
SUDAN
- The commissioner of Kurmuk County in Blue Nile accused Ethiopia of hosting and training RSF fighters, alleging planeloads arrived at a camp in Benishangul-Gumuz via Assosa airport with UAE facilitation.
- The Security Council is expected to vote this month on extending the Sudan sanctions regime, which expires 12 September.
UKRAINE–RUSSIA
- A Russian airstrike on Kramatorsk killed two people and injured four.
- Russian forces launched 806 strikes on 53 settlements in Zaporizhzhia region over 24 hours, injuring four. A drone strike set a shopping centre alight in Zaporizhzhia.
- Ukrainian forces struck oil refineries in three Russian regions and a drone storage and launch site in Kursk region. A drone strike destroyed a retail complex in occupied Mariupol, according to Russian-installed officials.
- The three-day mutual pause on strikes against Kyiv and Moscow, agreed for the US envoys’ visit, ran out at the end of the day.
ME/IS
- A tanker exploded on Iran’s Hamedan-Sanandaj highway, injuring at least six.
- Netanyahu said in an interview aired Saturday that Qatar is a hostile state and that Israel bombed it during the war, days before the anniversary of the September 2025 Doha strike.
- Israeli strikes on Sept. 4 hit villages in Tyre and Nabatieh districts in southern Lebanon after the military said it intercepted a Hezbollah drone beyond the Yellow Line. Demolitions of border villages continue.
YEMEN
- Houthi attacks on Taiz escalated, triggering a new displacement wave, in a push toward Bab al-Mandeb that has driven the heaviest fighting in years.
- Fighting continues on near-daily basis in Marib, Taiz and Hodeidah since early August. The Houthi naval blockade of Saudi Arabia, declared July 20, remains in force.
SUDAN
- The RSF is pressing Kurmuk on the Ethiopian border and continues to squeeze El Obeid after the army’s North Kordofan offensive in late July cut a key RSF supply corridor.
- Sudan’s Darfur arms embargo expires Sept. 12. A US push to extend it nationwide is expected to fail over Russian and Chinese opposition.
UKRAINE–RUSSIA
- US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrived in Kyiv and met Zelensky, a day after more than three hours of talks with Putin in Moscow produced no breakthrough. Zelensky said he expects the war to continue. Trump is expected to call both leaders on Sept. 7.
- Ukrainian drones struck nine fuel storage tanks and an S-300 position in Sochi.
- Both sides agreed to halt strikes on each other’s capitals for the duration of the envoys’ visits.
- Russian forces took roughly 90 square kilometres in August, according to ISW, without achieving a breakthrough. Moscow is positioning to claim the capture of Orikhiv.
ELSEWHERE
- A Cairo court sentenced TV host Sarah Khalifa and 11 others to death over drug trafficking.
- Niger widened blame to unnamed neighbouring states for an attack on a military base a week earlier.